Archive for December, 2008

posted by Dave on Dec 3

From Friday’s Globe and Mail

You could easily pardon anyone looking for a new condominium today for having a case of the jitters. Every day we are bombarded by U.S. reports of a housing market meltdown. CNN headlines a survey that shows one of every 452 homes in the United States is in foreclosure.

The media is chock-a-block with stories about a credit crunch, banks reluctant to lend to other banks, let alone new-home buyers.

Now take a deep breath, sit down and listen up. To paraphrase Dorothy’s line in The Wizard of Oz: This isn’t Kansas any more.

The simple fact is that any comparison between the Greater Toronto Area condo market and what is happening in the United States is about as valuable as discussing whether Batman or Spiderman would come out on top in a fight. It has no relationship to reality.

Yes, sales are down, but then again, last year was a blip, an anomaly, a Yukon gold rush. The market, experts say, is returning to the levels of more normal times.

That is probably good news. It may mean the rise in prices will slow or, even better, stall. It also means buyers will have an enormous range of choice. There are more than 330 different projects on sale in the GTA right now — the most ever.

And, as a shiny red cherry on top, mortgage money is still available for most buyers and at reassuringly low rates.

Granted, lenders are unlikely to offer the discounts on rates across the board that they did last year in the frenzy to do business. First-time buyers with anything less than 5 per cent cash to put down may face a tough time. New Canadians with no credit history in this country can expect to face challenges, and the 40-year amortization period is as dead as Sarah Palin’s hopes of being a heart beat away from power.

Jim Murphy, president of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, which represents brokers, lenders and mortgage insurers, says it is, in fact, business as usual.

“There is a plentiful supply at reasonable rates for any borrower who can qualify,” he points out. “Condos have taken over from single-family housing as the major force in the residential market and the industry has recognized that.

“There is no issue with supply, and those lenders that focused on subprime mortgages have left the market.”

Five-year, fixed-rate mortgages are available starting at 5.55 per cent and variable-rate mortgages are in plentiful supply at about one percentage point above prime.

“You can occasionally negotiate a discount on fixed-rate mortgages if you have great credit, but discounts on variable-rate mortgages have disappeared,” Mr. Murphy says.

At the Royal Bank of Canada, a spokesperson says it is business as usual in the mortgage department.

“RBC has not seen a decline in mortgage applications in the last four months,” the spokesperson says in an e-mail. “We continue to guarantee rates on new purchases for 90 days, and mortgage rates over the last four months have remained relatively steady.”

At HSBC Bank Canada, Loree Gray, vice-president branch banking for Toronto, says lending to condo buyers continues as strong as ever — to those who meet credit requirements.

“We look for strong employment, enough income to service the debt (between 32 and 45 per cent of income), an acceptable down payment and a strong credit history,” she explains. Buyers who meet all of those tests and can plunk down 20 per cent of the purchase price as their down payment will be welcomed with open arms by lenders, the bankers say.

Less than that 20 per cent down, however, means you likely will have to seek an insured mortgage from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. In that case, the federal government, acting through third-party insurers, guarantees the mortgage will be repaid if the borrower defaults.

These insurers charge between 2 and 3 per cent on top of the mortgage interest rate, and, this fall, CMHC set out new rules for mortgage insurance.

As Mr. Murphy explains, there are three basic guidelines borrowers should be aware of.

First, condo buyers must be able to make a down payment of at least 5 per cent of the purchase price, but at the same time, they can borrow that if they can find a lender willing to take the risk.

Second, CMHC says no more 40-year amortization periods. Now, 35 years is as long as it is willing to go.

Finally, borrowers must have a credit score higher than 600. (This score is a statistical analysis of a person’s credit file.)

HSBC’s Ms. Gray offers a tip to new Canadians. If, in their country of origin, they were customers of a bank with offices in Canada, such as her own, that credit score may not prove to be a hurdle.

“If we know you and if you have been a good customer in the past, even if you have no credit history in Canada, our comfort level rises,” she says.

In fact, establishing a track record with a bank in anticipation of some day needing a mortgage is a great idea for anyone, she adds.

“Not only does it give us the level of comfort we need to make that loan, … it also gives insight into which product might best suit your needs.”

posted by Dave on Dec 3

Real estate markets in 2009 will be mired in the economic slowdown and their performance will depend on how government stimulus affects consumer confidence, the realty firm Re/Max said Wednesday.

In its 2009 outlook, Re/Max said the threat of global recession will weigh on markets, and estimated that half of the 22 major Canadian cities it surveys will see market declines, with B.C. markets seeing some of the steepest drops.

Elton Ash, Re/Max regional executive vice-president for Western Canada, said the beginning of 2009 will look a lot like the end of 2008.

“The confidence issue, certainly from our perspective, [will be key] when we look at 2009,” Ash said in an interview. “The first quarter of 2009 will certainly be a continuation of the trend we’re seeing now, with reduced transactions and average prices coming down in Vancouver and throughout British Columbia.”

Ash said consumers should have a better idea after the first quarter of 2009 what kinds of stimuli governments plan to inject into the economy, which should bolster confidence through the rest of 2009.

“The good news, from the first-time homebuyer’s perspective, is that homes will become slightly more affordable, provided they have the confidence to buy,” Ash said.

Re/Max said Metro Vancouver will have experienced a 33-per-cent drop in sales by the end of 2008, and 2009 sales should end at the same level. Vancouver’s average price at the end of 2009 should be seven per cent below 2008’s average price.

Victoria and Kelowna, after experiencing 23-per-cent and 37-per-cent declines in sales, should see sales decline a further 11 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively. The 2009 average prices in those cities, in Re/Max’s assessment, will dip 10 per cent from 2008.

Nationally, Re/Max expects sales to decline 15 per cent by the end of 2008 to 440,000 units and stay at that level for 2009. It believes the national average price will decrease three per cent to $300,000 in 2008, and a further two per cent to $293,000 in 2009.

Re/Max’s assessment is the latest of the fall forecasts tracking B.C. and Canadian real estate markets. Not all came to the same conclusions.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s 2009 forecast is for B.C.’s average price to decline nine per cent in 2009 and provincial sales to fall just under one per cent.

Central 1 Credit Union’s forecast calls for 13-per-cent declines in B.C.’s average price for 2009 and a further five per cent in 2010, when it expects the market to recover. It expects sales to drop 17 per cent in 2009.

Other analysts have estimated that prices in B.C.’s markets overshot their equilibrium on the up-cycle, such as Carl Gomez, vice-president of research at Bentall Investment Management, who believes prices might have spiked as much as 30 per cent over equilibrium.

However, Ash said B.C.’s markets have geography and demographics going for them in the long run. Over time, the province will continue to be the place where baby boomers move in retirement.

“There’s no reason for British Columbians to be overly concerned about the value of the real estate they’re holding today,” Ash said. “It will come back in a big way.”

depenner@vancouversun.com

 

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